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🐻 The other type of bear trap

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Balenciaga recently introduced a “Trash Pouch” that looks like a garbage bag. At $1,790, it costs as much as 6.5k actual garbage bags.

In today’s email:

  • Bear traps: We might be in one.
  • Chart: The US’ biggest robberies.
  • Whistleblower: Twitter’s got one.
  • Around the web: Learning lyrics, best leadership books, a bumbling joey, and more cool internet finds.

🎧 On the go? Listen to today’s quick podcast to hear Zach and Rob explain bear market traps, the sounds of space, Instagram’s newest copycatting victim, and more.

The big idea
bear trap

Are we caught in a ‘bear market trap’?

In the wild, a bear trap is a steel contraption with sharp teeth that can clamp a bear’s paws.

Arguably more painful is the stock market’s version — a rally that tricks investors into buying when it seems a down market is bouncing back, only for prices to sink lower.

Some investors believe we’re in the grips of a “bear market trap” right now, per Bloomberg.

Over the last couple months…

… the stock market has rallied around speculation that the Federal Reserve would slow interest rate hikes. The S&P 500’s YTD losses have dropped from 23% to 13%. But not everybody’s bought the rise:

  • Hedge funds have placed a record $107B bet against S&P 500 futures, and some investing pros are saying this has the markings of a bear market trap.

The bears argue the Federal Reserve will need to keep raising rates to cut inflation to their 2% target, which could take over two years. Sustained inflation would result in lower consumer spending, and higher unemployment.

But it’s not all bad news

Bear market traps are nothing new — similar rallies occurred during 2002’s dot-com crash and 2008’s financial crisis, both of which the market recovered from.

  • Further, analysts expect unemployment to stay below 6%, a marker of a longer recession. If correct, that means an opportunity to buy the actual dip could be right around the corner.

Whatever you believe, be safe out there, and steer clear of either type of bear trap.

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SNIPPETS

BeReal will probably BeReally annoyed to hear that Instagram is internally testing a clone of the spontaneous photo-sharing app.

Settlers of Catan, but make it a hologram. The board game that sells 1m+ copies annually will be available to play virtually with Tilt Five’s yet-to-be-released AR gaming glasses.

Students get the W: A judge ruled that a required virtual scan of Cleveland State University student Aaron Ogletree’s room prior to an online test violated his Fourth Amendment rights.

Xiaolang Zhang pleaded guilty Monday to stealing 25 pages worth of automotive trade secrets from his former employer, Apple.

France now offers ~$4k to anyone who trades in their gas car for an electric bike, in hopes that 9% of the country will swap by 2024.

Hydrofoiling electric “flying” boat company Candela (cool clip here) signed an agreement with Swedish EV maker Polestar for its battery systems.

48% of all shipping containers bound for the UK pass through the Felixstowe Port. An eight-day strike there is estimated to impact $4.7B worth of product.

Sony confirmed its PS VR2 headset is coming in early 2023 with 20+ games. Players still need a PS5 to use it.

Spooky: NASA released an eerie sound clip of a black hole.

TikTok searches for #Neurosciencehacks increased 8x in the last 90 days. Access Trends to read our industry report, along with hundreds more.

Chart
largest robberies

Zachary Crockett

The man who robbed 100+ banks — and got away with it

George Leonidas Leslie lived a strange double life.

By day, he was a distinguished architect who hobnobbed with New York City’s elite.

By night, he was one of history’s most prolific bank robbers, orchestrating an estimated 80% of all bank robberies in the US in the late 1800s — a total haul worth $200m today.

  • Unlike other heisters, Leslie’s approach was academic rather than brutish. He studied the anatomy of locks, drafted up blueprints of banks, and invented mechanical safe-breaking devices.

The final bank heist he orchestrated is still, to this day, the largest in US history — an astounding $81m haul, adjusted for inflation.

But a mysterious murder would prevent him from ever seeing it play out.

Read the full story →
Free Resource

10 handy competitive analysis templates

Yeah, we peruse other newsletters. What’s it to ya?

There’s a lot to learn from a quick dip into the oppositions’ playbooks.

Conducting a thorough lay of the land will keep you informed and ahead. Get started with these 10 competitive analysis templates.

10 timesavers:

  • Competitor strategy overview
  • Competitive landscape chart
  • You vs. them comparison chart
  • Competitor battle and score cards
  • Content marketing analysis template
  • SWOT analysis template
  • Review tracker

Look, they want your lunch. And they hungry.

Top the competition →
Chirp Chirp
Twitter app

SOPA Images / Getty Images

What’s up with Twitter’s whistleblower?

Whistleblower Peiter “Mudge” Zatko is shaking things up as Twitter prepares to face off against Elon Musk in court in October.

Zatko — an “ethical hacker” who’s worked with Google, Stripe, and the US Defense Department — is Twitter’s ex-head of cybersecurity.

His lawyers sent the report to Congress and federal agencies last month, per CNN.

What’s it say?

A lot, including:

  • Twitter lied about its spam and fake accounts being less than 5%.
  • Its reporting metric mDAU (monetizable daily active users) hides the number of fake accounts.
  • Execs don’t have the resources to know real numbers, nor are they incentivized to find out.
  • Leaders have misled Twitter’s board and the government about security vulnerabilities, including those that pose national security risks.
  • Twitter has never been in compliance with FTC demands from 2010.

Twitter’s official statement…

… is that Zatko’s report is a “false narrative” designed to harm the company.

But if Zatko’s claims are found to be credible, it could not only help Musk — who claims he abandoned his $44B Twitter purchase after it failed to provide info about fake accounts — but also mean big FTC fines.

BTW: Here’s Zatko sharing stories from his time with the Dept. of Defense at hacker convention DEF CON.

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AROUND THE WEB

💰 On this day: In 1967, activist Abbie Hoffman disrupted the NYSE by throwing dollar bills at traders, a protest intended to comment on greed.

🤔 That’s interesting: Why, for many, making more money doesn’t lead to greater financial freedom.

📚 How to: Hive’s top books on leadership.

🎤 Huh: Vibely claims it’s the fastest way to learn lyrics before karaoke night.

🦘 And now: A clumsy kangaroo.

Meme
Disney+ meme

Nice try. (Source: imgflip.com)

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Today’s email was brought to you by Jacob Cohen, Juliet Bennett Rylah, and Rob Litterst.
Editing by: Jennifer “Ethical Editor” Wang.

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