PLUS: What trends do we see for 2021?
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Instacart’s relationship with retailers may be fraying. What’s next? |
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There’s no other way to put it: Instacart’s numbers in 2020 are insane. The grocery delivery startup’s orders are up 5x this year while its workforce — primarily gig workers — hit 500k, up ~2x from 2019. On the back of this growth, it has raised $500m+ in 2020 and seen its private market valuation more than double to $17.7B. Instacart is used by retailers from 7-Eleven to WalmartIn fact, 500+ companies utilize the startup’s on-demand shoppers. According to the Wall Street Journal, some are souring on the deal. Among the reasons:
Many retailers encourage customers to go directly to their website (and do curbside pickup) or look at other delivery apps like DoorDash or Uber. The Instacart pitch is its turnkey natureNilam Ganenthiran, the company’s president, tells the WSJ that Instacart is a quick way for grocers to get online without spending time and money on infrastructure. Further, Instacart is a neutral partner that doesn’t “compete with retailers” — and it’s adding tech to give shoppers more control (e.g., item replacement suggestions). Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods was a shock for the startupBut instead of getting crushed by Jeff “Big Baller Brand” Bezos following the 2017 deal, Instacart became a defensive play against Amazon. Several retailers — including Sam’s Club, Costco, CVS, Albertsons, and Kroger — signed delivery deals with Instacart. Just this August, Instacart and Walmart teamed up on one-day delivery to take on the Seattle-based Death Star. In addition to retailer dissatisfaction, Instacart will likely face further issues around how it manages its contractors. Still, the startup’s momentum is undeniable — and it’s eyeing another insane number: a $30B IPO. |
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Snippets
- “Pay me in Bitcoin”: NFL player Russell Okung has partnered with a crypto firm (Strike) that can receive direct salary deposits and turn them into bitcoin. By letting the company turn half of his $13m salary into BTC, Okung is the first NFL player to get paid in bitcoin.
- Shaking up Intel? Activist hedge fund Third Point is urging Intel to explore strategic options, including potentially separating its chip design and production functions. Its stock rose ~5% on the news.
- Second time’s the charm. In 2018, Qualtrics — a SaaS product that gave companies user insights — was prepping for an IPO when SAP snapped it up for $8B. Now, with markets scorching hot, SAP will spin Qualtrics out at a potential IPO valuation of $14.4B.
- Kinda makes sense. “In 2023, you won’t be able to fly most drones in the US without broadcasting your location,” writes The Verge. All drones will have to get a “remote ID” (effectively a digital license plate).
- LVMH may soon close its $15.8B acquisition of Tiffany. The French luxury house previously tried to back out of the deal citing force majeure, but — as we detailed here — that’s a hard card to play in M&A.
- Former NBA all-star Baron Davis and hip-hop legend Master P may make a bid for Reebok, which Adidas wants to sell for $2B+. If this happens… in the words of Master P, “Make ’em say uhh!”
- Investment banks pulled in a record $124.5B on debt and equity underwriting fees. In an epic understatement, one banker calls it a “very robust” year for fundraising.
- Mastercard released holiday shopping numbers, and the category that saw the biggest jump this year was home improvement (+80% YoY).
Fantasy M&A | ||||
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Jay-Z and Jack Dorsey hanging in August (left) and December (right) (Source: Daily Mail) |
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Why would Square buy streaming music service Tidal? |
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Celebrity sightings are an American pastime. One of the better ones in recent months: Hip-hop megastar Jay-Z has been spotted with Square/Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and Jack Dorsey’s beard. Now, Square is in talks to acquire Jay-Z’s streaming service TidalAt first glance, Square’s 2-pillar businesses — seller services for merchants (e.g., the dongle) and the Cash App for consumers — seem tangentially related to music streaming. There is a strategic play, though, according to Dan Runcie (author of Trapital, a must-read newsletter on the business of hip-hop). Here are 2 reasons:
Further, Cash App is already very popular in the hip-hop community, often used for its viral bitcoin/cash giveaways. The app’s cultural relevance gives Cash App the industry’s lowest customer acquisition costs.
So, in the coming weeks, keep an eye out for more Jack Dorsey |
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Invest in the app that’s simplifying one very popular (and confusing) financial move…Options trading is 50% above last year’s level as of December. (Which is a lot, considering 2019 saw $14T+ worth of contracts traded). This explosive growth shows there’s no hotter market in the investment world right now — and that puts Gatsby in pole position to become the next big platform:
High engagement, low acquisition costs, and a zero-commission model that’s already profitable? It’s no wonder why Gatsby’s SeedInvest has already raised $2.2M. Invest in Gatsby for yourself right here — no options knowledge needed. |
Invest in Gatsby → |
Year in Review | ||||
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The things we got right and wrong in 2020 (and ungated Trends content to check out) |
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At Trends, we try to discover… well, trends, before they take off. Now that we’ve been running the show for over a year, we can look back and see how we did. For starters, we got a lot of things right, like…
A few of our predictions didn’t pan out, including starting a trade show, opening motels, or our bullish thoughts on this “new movie industry” (AKA VR). Post-pandemic, we still see opportunities with trade shows, many of which have 30-50% margins. And VR is still primed to be big — preorders for the latest Oculus Quest were 5x its predecessor. As a New Year’s bonus, we’ve ungated 12 of our top Trends pieces from the past year. For one week only, you can read the following pieces for free:
👀 Looking back, we can only be sure of one thing: The year started with esports and ended with esports. |
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Signal | ||||
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Source: Statista. Note: Doesn’t include 1.59m apps that are not rated (have fewer than 3 ratings) |
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Trends business idea: Poorly executed but popular apps |
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If you’re looking for your next business idea, sometimes the best place to look is… at ideas that are already validated. Earlier this month, Huszko Jozsef posted his pet project on Product Hunt. It’s called Validated Ideas, a list of 5k+ popular apps (100k+ downloads each) that have been poorly executed (ratings lower than 3.2). “Coming up with innovative ideas is hard and time-consuming,” Huszko writes. “You don’t need to reinvent the wheel — just execute better.” Below we’ve summarized the 20 categories with the most downloads, which together account for ~90% of the whole database. |
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We’ve sifted through thousands of these apps and pulled out some opportunities worth noticing. Here are 3 to get you started:
You can read our full write-ups on these and other ideas by signing up for Trends today with our 2021 discount. |
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From Shark Tank rejection to $200M valuation: Super Coffee is blowing upWhen the Super Coffee team mixed up the first dorm room brew in 2015, nobody could’ve guessed the future would hold…
But that’s just what happens when you create a product that tastes like a frappuccino and offers health nuts everything they love: 0g of added sugar, 10g of protein, keto-friendly, and lactose-free. |
Try Super Coffee → |
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