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🧠 Morgan’s market musings

The Hustle
January 26, 2022
The Hustle

If the market has you scheming crazy ideas, you’re not alone. That’s why we brought in Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money, to put the recent drop in perspective, and keep us from doing anything we’ll regret 10 years from now. That doesn’t include yelling at your computer screen — that’s fine.

Today’s rundown:

  • Morgan Housel: Our favorite finance historian puts this crash in perspective.
  • Super Bowl commercials: Which brands spend the most?
  • Nourish + Bloom: This Black-owned market in Georgia proves Amazon isn’t the only one with automated checkout.
  • Around the web: Pandemic shopping, a strange dog, motivation tips, and more cool internet finds.

Let’s do it.
Opinion: Morgan’s Musings
skating up and down

When the stock market plunges, keep your head on a swivel

The US stock market has turned $1 into $748k over the last 130 years.

It’s amazing. The greatest wealth-generation machine of all time.

That’s an impractical time frame, but let me show the context of why this matters. Here’s what actually happened during those 130 years of amazing returns:

Data Source: Robert Shiller

This is so important. During a period when market returns were extraordinary, it’s common, normal, constant, that stocks are way below their previous all-time high.

Big returns amid constant chaos and volatility is the entire history of the stock market.

But still…

… these declines hurt. They’re never fun.

Two things to keep in mind:

  • Nothing is free: There’s a cost of admission that must be paid to do well over time. The world is not so kind that it’ll deliver big returns to people who sacrifice nothing. All durable long-term investing returns have to be earned, deserved.
  • The highest cost investors pay is enduring volatility and uncertainty. A big decline doesn’t necessarily mean you did something wrong; most likely you’re just paying the cost of admission to earning good returns over a long period of time.

Your lifetime investing returns are overwhelmingly determined by how you behave when the market gets wild, like it is now. Napoleon’s definition of a military genius was “the man who can do the average thing when everyone else around him is losing his mind.”

It’s the same in investing

If you can remain calm and not dump everything in a panic when the market plunges, you don’t need to make many smart decisions to do well at investing over time.

And remember the ultimate market irony: All past market declines look like opportunities, all future market declines look like risks.
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SNIPPETS

Amazon Go: Amazon announced plans to launch a new convenience store format. The 1st store is set to open in a suburb outside Seattle. #ecommerce-retail

Going vertical: Walmart invested in Plenty, a vertical farming startup, and plans to stock its products this year. #clean-energy

More mediums: Substack announced it is testing a video feature in private beta that will be rolled out over the coming weeks. #emerging-tech

Let it NFT: Julian Lennon, son of John Lennon, opened bidding for several pieces of Beatles memorabilia through an NFT auction. #fintech-crypto

Deal gone bad: Nvidia started preparing to abandon its $40B purchase of Arm after gaining little traction toward the purchase. #big-tech

MFM: Sam and Shaan discuss how a farmer is making $50m a year with a newsletter. #mfm
Super Bowl
Super Bowl graphic

Super Bowl ads are getting even pricier

When people are willing to watch 3.5 hours of TV just for the commercials, you spend a lot of money on your commercial.

Ergo, the average price for a 30-second Super Bowl ad slot in 2022 is up 18%+, to $6.5m.

That’s outside of the money companies spend to actually produce their ads (normally anywhere from $1m-$5m). Plus, this year, covid added to the bill:

  • Rakuten Rewards paid $120k for covid protocols during its shoots.
  • Avocados From Mexico dropped $200k to move shooting from Cape Town to Mexico City.

(Side note: Americans increasingly love Super Bowl guac — the US imported 277m pounds of Mexican avocados in January 2021 alone, up 19% YoY.)
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Grocery Tech
Jamie and Jilea Hemmings

The 1st Black-owned automated market is now open

A new business in Georgia shows you don’t have to be Amazon to open a checkout-free store.

Nourish + Bloom Market, located in Fayetteville, is the 1st Black-owned autonomous grocery store in the world.

It offers locally sourced groceries, prepared meals, and convenience items.

Nourish + Bloom is owned by husband-and-wife duo Jamie and Jilea Hemmings

In 2009, while living in Florida, they founded Greenie Tots, a food company that served healthier, plant-based versions of popular kids’ meals.

They began researching how diet affects children with autism after their son was diagnosed at age 2.

Despite high demand, Greenie Tots shut down after they were ghosted by an investor, per the Sun Sentinel.

The Hemmings moved to the Atlanta area 2 years ago, where they decided to open a market.

While Nourish + Bloom Market is staffed with humans…

… shopping can be contact-free. Customers download an app, then scan a code to start their cart, per TechCrunch.

Cameras and weighted shelves track which items they buy. Upon leaving, the app charges their payment method.

And the store delivers, via 2 delivery robots that take orders to customers within 3 miles.

Automated stores are popping up everywhere

Nourish + Bloom is currently raising funds to open additional markets in Atlanta, Florida, and Texas, but you’re apt to see similar concepts all over.

  • Amazon Go now lists 24 stores in the US
  • Grabandgo has installed its tech in select ampm, Amoco, Giant Eagle, and Circle K stores.
  • Trigo has been adding its tech to stores across Europe and is eyeing the US market

Btw: Uh, these delivery robots are kinda cute, right?
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AROUND THE WEB

🍺 On this day: In 1838, Tennessee became the 1st state to pass a Prohibition law, making the sale of alcohol a misdemeanor. Prohibition hit the entire US in 1919, but was repealed in 1933.

🛼 That’s interesting: This website shows how the pandemic changed our shopping behaviors. For example, people went wild for roller skates and beans.

🐶 Wait, what: Rescuers in England lured a small dog out of dangerous, flood-prone mud flats by tying a sausage to a drone.

🧺 How to: If you dread and put off mundane tasks, here are some tips for motivating yourself to get them done.

✈️ Useful: Skiplagged is a travel booking tool that searches hidden city flights — flights typically overlooked because they’re meant as layovers — to find cheaper tickets.

🐕 Aww: And now, someone please explain why this dog is sitting like this.
Tweet of the day
stock market tweet

Another refreshing perspective. (Source: Twitter)
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