It appears Americans suck at guesstimating

Recent YouGov polls that ask folks to guess the percentage of US adults that fall into small subgroups show sizable discrepancies when compared to true proportions.

On average, for example, respondents said they perceive 20% of the US adult population to have a household income of $1m+. In reality, it’s less than 1%. Other interesting findings include:

• Have a college degree: 47% perceived, 33% actual
• Have flown on a plane: 59% perceived, 88% actual
• Have a $25k+ household income: 62% perceived, 82% actual
• Are left-handed: 34% perceived, 11% actual
• Are Jewish: 30% perceived, 2% actual

For fun, let’s do our own poll right now: If you had to guess, how many Bitcoin millionaires are there?

If you said 86,048, you’d be correct.