Why recessions are inevitable

As markets continue to wobble and more people discuss the possibility of heading into a recession, let me share a fundamental truth about money:

  • If markets never crashed, they wouldn’t be risky.
  • If they weren’t risky, they would get expensive.
  • When they’re expensive, they crash.

So markets will always crash, because if they didn’t, they would become more susceptible to crashing.

The same is true for recessions

When the economy is stable, people become optimistic.

  • When they get optimistic, they go into debt.
  • When they go into debt, the economy becomes unstable.
  • When it’s unstable, you eventually get a recession.

A lack of recessions plants the seeds of the next recession, which is why we can never get rid of them. In other words, stability is destabilizing —  something economist Hyman Minsky figured out half a century ago.

It’s one of the most useful observations in investing because it explains why volatility is both inevitable and caused by people acting reasonably.

Here’s why this is important

If you view every debt-fueled recession, market crash, and asset bubble as an example of your fellow people acting crazy, you might become cynical, which makes it hard to be a long-term optimist, even when you should be.

If you view them as inevitable, you realize they’re just part of the ride and an occasional reminder that the fasten-your-seat belt sign should never be turned off.

None of this is fun, but virtually all of it is inevitable.

Try to enjoy the ride.

Get the 5-minute roundup you’ll actually read in your inbox​

Business and tech news in 5 minutes or less​


How'd Bezos build a billion dollar empire?

In 1994, Jeff Bezos discovered a shocking stat: Internet usage grew 2,300% per year.

Data shows where markets are headed.

And that’s why we built Trends — to show you up-and-coming market opportunities about to explode. Interested?

[email-submission-form button-text="Join Free" include-trends-opt-in="true" success-url="https://thehustle.co/new-thank-you-v2/" default-source="thehustleco" default-medium="home-exit-popup" default-campaign="home-page" form-id="exit-popup-general" optinmonster-conversion="true"]
<script type="text/javascript"> var onloadCallback = function() { grecaptcha.render('verify-your-humanity', { 'sitekey' : '6LdddrcZAAAAALyttpvOqiwQGwq5BNhgDz4tMQGE' }); }; function getCookieValue(a) { var b = document.cookie.match('(^|[^;]+)\\s*' + a + '\\s*=\\s*([^;]+)'); return b ? atob(decodeURIComponent(b.pop())) : ''; } function getCookie(name) { var cookieArr = document.cookie.split(";"); for(var i = 0; i < cookieArr.length; i++) { var cookiePair = cookieArr[i].split("="); if(name == cookiePair[0].trim()) { return decodeURIComponent(cookiePair[1]); } } return null; } function setHiddenFieldValue(wrappingDiv, searchParams, className, utmName, cookieName, defaultValue) { var el = wrappingDiv.getElementsByClassName(className)[0]; var existingVal = el.getAttribute('value'); if (utmName == 'ref') { var newVal = searchParams.get(utmName) || getCookie(cookieName); } else { var newVal = searchParams.get(utmName) || getCookieValue(cookieName); } if ((existingVal == null || existingVal == '' || existingVal == defaultValue) && (newVal != null && newVal != '')) { el.setAttribute('value', newVal); } } function setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm( wrappingDiv, searchParams, className, utmName, defaultValue ) { var el = wrappingDiv.getElementsByClassName(className)[0]; if (el != null) { var existingVal = el.getAttribute("value"); var newVal = searchParams.get(utmName); if (newVal != null && newVal != "") { el.setAttribute("value", newVal); } } } function initForm() { var wrappingDivs = document.getElementsByClassName('email-submission'); Array.prototype.forEach.call(wrappingDivs,wrappingDiv => { var sp = new URLSearchParams(window.location.search); setHiddenFieldValue(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-source', 'utm_source', 'funnel_source', 'thehustleco'); setHiddenFieldValue(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-campaign', 'utm_campaign', 'funnel_campaign', 'home-page'); setHiddenFieldValue(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-medium', 'utm_medium', 'funnel_medium', 'home-exit-popup'); setHiddenFieldValue(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-referral', 'ref', 'funnel_referral', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-a', 'a', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-c', 'c', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-o', 'o', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-oc', 'oc', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-e', 'e', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-f', 'f', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-r', 'r', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-t', 't', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-s1', 's1', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-s2', 's2', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-s3', 's3', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-s4', 's4', ''); setHiddenFieldValueFromUtm(wrappingDiv, sp, 'funnel-s5', 's5', ''); var error_message = getCookieValue('validate-email-message'); if (error_message && error_message.trim() != '') { var error = wrappingDiv.getElementsByClassName('funnel-error')[0]; var prev_email = getCookieValue('funnel_email'); error_message = prev_email + " is not valid. Please try again"; error.innerHTML = error_message; error.style = ''; } }); if (false) { initCaptchaFormV2(); } } function initCaptchaFormV2() { var v3RecaptchaResponseEl = document.getElementById('recaptcha-response-v3'); v3RecaptchaResponseEl.parentNode.removeChild(v3RecaptchaResponseEl); var wrappingDiv = document.getElementById('email-submission'); var subForm = wrappingDiv.getElementsByClassName('email-submission')[0]; var captchaVersion = document.createElement('input'); captchaVersion.class = 'g-recaptcha hidden-input'; captchaVersion.type = 'hidden'; captchaVersion.name = 'g-recaptcha-response-v2'; captchaVersion.value = 'true'; subForm.appendChild(captchaVersion); var captchaEl = document.createElement('div'); captchaEl.id = 'verify-your-humanity'; subForm.prepend(captchaEl); var captchaApiScriptEl = document.createElement('script'); captchaApiScriptEl.src = 'https://www.recaptcha.net/recaptcha/api.js?onload=onloadCallback&render=explicit'; captchaApiScriptEl.async = true; captchaApiScriptEl.defer = true; document.head.appendChild(captchaApiScriptEl); } window.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', (event) => { initForm(); }); if(typeof hp_interval == 'undefined') { var hp_interval = 0; var hp_ts = 0; var hp_try = 0; jQuery(document).ready(function ($) { hp_interval = setInterval(function(){ $('input.hp_ts').val(hp_ts); hp_ts += 1; if(hp_ts >= 180) { clearInterval(hp_interval); } },1000); $('.email-submission:not(.prevent-default)').submit(function (e) { var form = $(this); if(hp_ts < 3 && hp_try < 1) { e.preventDefault(); if (form.find('.email-form-submit-message').length < 1) { form.find('.email-form-wrap').after('<p class="email-form-submit-message" style="padding: 0em 1.5em;">Too fast! Are you a human? Try again please.</p>'); } hp_try += 1; hp_ts = 0; $('input.hp_try').val(hp_try); } }); }); } </script> <div class="email-signup" id=email-submission> <div class="funnel-error" style="display:none;"></div> <form class="email-submission " id="exit-popup-general" action="https://cms.thehustle.co/api/v1/contacts/wordpress_create" method="post" autocomplete="email"> <div class="email-form-wrap"> <input class="funnel-source hidden-input" type="hidden" name="source" value="daily"> <input class="funnel-campaign hidden-input" type="hidden" name="campaign" value="Thursday Email"> <input class="funnel-medium hidden-input" type="hidden" name="medium" value="email"> <input class="funnel-form-id hidden-input" type="hidden" name="form-id" value="exit-popup-general"> <input class="funnel-referral hidden-input" type="hidden" name="referral_code"> <input class="funnel-fail-url hidden-input" type="hidden" name="fail_url" value=""> <input class="funnel-ip-country-wordpress hidden-input" type="hidden" name="ip_country_wordpress" value="US"> <input class="funnel-submission-url hidden-input" type="hidden" name="submission_url" value="https://thehustle.co/06162022-morgans-musings/?utm_campaign=Thursday+Email&utm_content=06162022-morgans-musings&utm_medium=email&utm_source=daily"> <input class="funnel-a hidden-input" type="hidden" name="a" value=""> <input class="funnel-c hidden-input" type="hidden" name="c" value=""> <input class="funnel-o hidden-input" type="hidden" name="o" value=""> <input class="funnel-oc hidden-input" type="hidden" name="oc" value=""> <input class="funnel-e hidden-input" type="hidden" name="e" value=""> <input class="funnel-f hidden-input" type="hidden" name="f" value=""> <input class="funnel-r hidden-input" type="hidden" name="r" value=""> <input class="funnel-t hidden-input" type="hidden" name="t" value=""> <input class="funnel-s1 hidden-input" type="hidden" name="s1" value=""> <input class="funnel-s2 hidden-input" type="hidden" name="s2" value=""> <input class="funnel-s3 hidden-input" type="hidden" name="s3" value=""> <input class="funnel-s4 hidden-input" type="hidden" name="s4" value=""> <input class="funnel-s5 hidden-input" type="hidden" name="s5" value=""> <input class="funnel-success-url hidden-input" type="hidden" name="success_url" value="https://thehustle.co/new-thank-you-v2/"> <input id="recaptcha-response-v3" class="g-recaptcha hidden-input" type="hidden" name="g-recaptcha-response" value=""> <div class="signup-icon" style="display:none;"> <svg width="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M22 6c0-1.1-.9-2-2-2H4c-1.1 0-2 .9-2 2v12c0 1.1.9 2 2 2h16c1.1 0 2-.9 2-2V6Zm-2 0-8 5-8-5h16Zm0 12H4V8l8 5 8-5v10Z" fill="#848B92"></path></svg> </div> <input type="hidden" name="hp_ts" class="hp_ts" value="0"> <input type="hidden" name="hp_try" class="hp_try" value="0"> <input type="text" name="first_name" placeholder="Enter your name" value=""> <input class="signup-email" type="email" name="email" placeholder="Your email address" required autocomplete="email"> <input class="email-submit om-trigger-conversion" type="submit" value="Join Free"> </div> <div class="validate-mistake-emails-message" style="display:none;"></div> <div class="form-options" style="display:none"> <div class="form-options-wrap"> <div class="trends-opt-in"> <input id="trends_opt_in_email_submission" class="trends-opt-in-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="trends_opt_in"> <label for="trends_opt_in_email_submission" id="trends_opt_in_label" class="trends-opt-in-text">Yes, I’d like to receive additional marketing emails on hot business opportunities from Trends, by the Hustle.</label> </div> <div class="privacy-text"> <p>We're committed to your privacy. The Hustle uses the information you provide to contact you about our relevant content and services. You may unsubscribe from these communications at any time. For more information, check out our <a href="https://thehustle.co/privacy">Privacy Policy</a>.</p> </div> </div> </div> <div submit-success> <template type="amp-mustache"> <p class="c-message c-message--success">Thank you for subscribing.</p> </template> </div> <div submit-error> <template type="amp-mustache"> <p class="c-message c-message--failed">Your submission failed. Please try again!</p> </template> </div> </form> </div>