Tesla’s wide-open road is getting cramped

But the company’s first-mover advantage should help it weather heavy competition.

Singdhi Sokpo

For years, Tesla has enjoyed a majority share of the US electric vehicle market with little competition.

While the company’s done a great job using its first-mover advantage to expand its lineup, charging network, and factories, this period of nearly unchallenged growth is rapidly closing.

What’s happening?

Per estimates from S&P Global Mobility, Tesla’s US EV market share will drop to less than 20% by 2025, down from 65% this year and 71% last year.

  • As more affordable options become available, Tesla’s entry-level Model 3, which starts at $40k+, is looking increasingly pricey.

To that end, Tesla is reportedly ramping up development of a cheaper Model 3. The company is also delivering its first-ever electric Semi Truck to Pepsi today.

Big picture: Roughly 5.1% of 10.22m vehicles registered in the US through Q3 were electric, up from 2.8% in 2021. Small, but growing fast.

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