Sam Altman — the entrepreneur who ran Y Combinator and now heads OpenAI — made an offer in 2015.
He put up $100k and challenged anyone calling tech a “bubble” to take the other side of his pricing predictions for January 2020, including whether:
- Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX would be worth $200B+
- A selection of Y Combinator startups (e.g., Stripe, Instacart, Coinbase) would be worth $27B+
Altman was off on prediction No. 1 (by a few months)
But blew No. 2 out of the water and also got a 3rd prediction right.
Since he had to win all parts of the bet, though, Altman ended up paying $100k to a charity.
It’s always a blast when Altman fires up pricing questions
And, he served up another banger this weekend when he asked the internet, “What tiny/nonexistent markets today will be trillion dollar markets in 10-20 years?”
There have been 1k+ responses including:
- Space tourism
- DNA synthesis
- Virtualization of travel
- Personalized medicine
- 3D printing architecture
- Carbon capture and storage
- Standardizing the gig economy
- Commercialized psychedelic medicine
- Electric charging station mini market stores (7-11 meets Tesla)
The most popular was: “Falling romantically in love with something digital and artificial but extremely realistic.”